Assessment and uncertainty quantification of onshore geological CO2 storage capacity in China

We provide a probabilistic assessment of CO2 storage capacity in major sedimentary basins China. Our approach embeds constraints associated with the increase reservoir pore pressure due to injection presence resident brine. Pressure build-up must be limited avoid fault reactivation, caprock failure, and possible leakage, resulting more conservative estimates as compared volumetric estimates. rely on numerical Monte Carlo framework considering uncertainty values size geological formation attributes (i.e., absolute permeability, porosity, compressibility). work shows that 10 can potentially store, average, 1350 Gt during next 30 years (lower upper quartiles being 1100 1700 CO2, respectively). This far exceeds likely amount (up 175 CO2) required stored by 2050. analysis also suggests 6 (located close largest emission areas) store about 93 (on average) years. Underground carbon China, coupled other solutions, could meet aims Announced Pledges Scenario (International Energy Agency) mitigate global warming 2060. perform sensitivity determine how our predictions may affected uncertainties simulation model input parameters. Moment-based metrics suggest are sources uncertainty, significantly affecting outputs uncertainty.